NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe49d8f07ec0fb148a4ca93c822b7c9dd2cfff2a989e0fd7673a566f89aaf08c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Starsof Stars, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Canadiens | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…45dbbacked Stars | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Stars | 27c | 399.96$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.97 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Canadiens | 19c | 294.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Stars | 26c | 204.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.72 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5536…8637backed Stars | 27c | 151$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…2f56backed Canadiens | 73c | 146$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Canadiens | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe91f…a9aebacked Stars | 27c | 130$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +201%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f7…2b92backed Canadiens | 73c | 116$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Stars | 26c | 77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e19…7100backed Canadiens | 73c | 53.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…1278backed Canadiens | 74c | 52.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…367fbacked Canadiens | 73c | 50.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…9d51backed Canadiens | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e3…1803backed Canadiens | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723d…798fbacked Canadiens | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 71cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…1dc7backed Canadiens | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b0…53c3backed Canadiens | 73c | 45.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…b1e4backed Canadiens | 73c | 43.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…0d00backed Canadiens | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…85bfbacked Canadiens | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf446…1ca2backed Canadiens | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab50…b7cabacked Canadiens | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. CanadiensStars won
- Stars vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Over won
- Stars vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.