MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4c590a23277994a3ffaf8ecd38d30ce62f262ccdfbe4e250e19e521cf5e38f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,298 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 1,125$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.03 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Seattle Mariners | 48c | 1,094$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.19 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 971.64$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.52 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 531.25$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.25 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Seattle Mariners | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 321.1$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.34 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 302$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.98 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Seattle Mariners | 51c | 240.45$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.63 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 207.34$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 199.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 166.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9c…6dacbacked Seattle Mariners | 77c | 130.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 103$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 103$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 82.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 22c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Seattle Mariners | 68c | 73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 67.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 38.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 37.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…11ffbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…9728backed Seattle Mariners | 76c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.