Stocks · resolved market
Will Micron (MU) close above $1,000 end of June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4f822b1710c964f65c555a4972ce7e37fe7165e4d00761cc2335432cc85b3a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 40c | 394.34$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…0591backed Yes | 60c | 389.95$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…1615backed Yes | 17c | 219.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.17 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 6c | 178.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 15c | 168.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 109.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 12c | 102.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…3bedbacked No | 39c | 98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed No | 39c | 80.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 40c | 72.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2b…fadabacked No | 66c | 24.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Micron (MU) close above $1,000 end of June?this page
- Will Micron (MU) close above $1,040 end of June?Yes won
- Will Micron (MU) close above $800 end of June?Yes won
- Will Micron (MU) close above $920 end of June?Yes won
- Will Micron (MU) close above $960 end of June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.