Tennis · resolved market
ITF Ystad: Lea Nilsson vs Madison Sieg
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe53f515585585fe91f8420a1cc800e0059e25a236a1cf9355ff0b3590de4b2aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lea Nilssonof Lea Nilsson, Madison Sieg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Lea Nilsson | 27c | 1,316$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.88 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Madison Sieg | 72c | 700.35$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.15 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Lea Nilsson | 27c | 557.97$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.77 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Madison Sieg | 35c | 411.46$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.37 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Lea Nilsson | 26c | 346.15$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.82 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Madison Sieg | 73c | 326.48$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.35 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Lea Nilsson | 27c | 255.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.15 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Madison Sieg | 69c | 239.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.6 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Madison Sieg | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Lea Nilsson | 37c | 167.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Madison Sieg | 63c | 166.08$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.63 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Madison Sieg | 72c | 136.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.45 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Lea Nilsson | 27c | 131.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Lea Nilsson | 59c | 130.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Lea Nilsson | 27c | 88.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Lea Nilsson | 27c | 88.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…7cefbacked Madison Sieg | 34c | 87.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 367 | 43.6%160 W · 207 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Lea Nilsson | 28c | 79.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Madison Sieg | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Madison Sieg | 45c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Madison Sieg | 71c | 65.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Lea Nilsson | 27c | 56.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Madison Sieg | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Lea Nilsson | 29c | 55.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Lea Nilsson | 21c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Madison Sieg | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 684 | 30%205 W · 479 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Lea Nilsson | 59c | 46.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Lea Nilsson | 32c | 46.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Madison Sieg | 33c | 35.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Madison Sieg | 70c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…8a6ebacked Madison Sieg | 74c | 27.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 417 | 68.1%284 W · 133 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Madison Sieg | 60c | 25.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.