Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe55ca7ac5719e19c51aafcccd2be36aa63401812bf02c203be0c5f694c76de74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Team Nemesis, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Team Nemesis | 77c | 1,071$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.33 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Nemesis | 78c | 1,049$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.7 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Carstensz | 24c | 909.24$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.47 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Carstensz | 23c | 839.53$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.72 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Carstensz | 17c | 697.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Carstensz | 20c | 584.56$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…5d25backed Carstensz | 22c | 501.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Nemesis | 80c | 496.64$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Carstensz | 26c | 490.1$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.43 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Nemesis | 78c | 467.89$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Nemesis | 77c | 430.65$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Team Nemesis | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Carstensz | 16c | 240.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Team Nemesis | 78c | 232.99$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Carstensz | 17c | 217.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Carstensz | 19c | 181.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Carstensz | 16c | 104.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Carstensz | 20c | 97.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Carstensz (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Carstensz - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.