NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe593f12249653cf5a2d4e09ab585f9e29251fd4d07492d8eab17814fb0556284
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 48c | 6,631$3,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,467.04 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 52c | 2,726$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.54 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 53c | 1,890$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.7 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 955.84$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.04 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 435.59$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.78 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 54c | 400.41$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.61 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 140 | 65.7%92 W · 48 L | +13.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 54c | 217.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 54c | 193.93$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 198 | 44.4%88 W · 110 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Under | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…813dbacked Over | 48c | 62.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 46c | 25.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…78b5backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 51cpaid | -76%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5this page
- Penguins vs. Blue JacketsPenguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.