Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Athletic Bilbao beat Fenerbahce?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6539776e427bc9273ada6cf3c034b0597772749c55f84ff235fe72786167433
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 49c | 3,769$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,862.64 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Yes | 63c | 3,616$2,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.37 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 44c | 2,273$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.28 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…09cbbacked Yes | 36c | 1,690$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.68 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 49c | 1,510$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.51 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a3…44d3backed Yes | 80c | 1,128$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 18c | 947.56$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.56 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 37c | 876$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.14 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…7840backed Yes | 34c | 761.77$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929e…1935backed Yes | 63c | 277.13$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 248.65$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed No | 66c | 244.3$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.18 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 66c | 244$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.98 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 33c | 233.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.38 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5272…f0afbacked Yes | 61c | 163.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 66c | 154.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…de7bbacked Yes | 34c | 118.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32dc…51abbacked Yes | 34c | 94.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 66c | 83.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…004dbacked Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6b00backed Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 49c | 40.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c98…bf99backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…c301backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Athletic Bilbao beat Fenerbahce?this page
- Will Fenerbahce beat Athletic Bilbao?No won
- Will the match between Fenerbahce and Athletic Bilbao end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.