Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Fenerbahce beat Athletic Bilbao?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97bcff41aaecd56e82e1fb63043683e1122979c032a2723531e8985317470c64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 36c | 6,457$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.77 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 65c | 4,306$2,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.48 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 17c | 2,823$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 68c | 2,572$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.41 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 32c | 780.26$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.34 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 7c | 690$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 63c | 191$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed No | 63c | 191$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…5693backed No | 67c | 149.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…ce78backed Yes | 39c | 130.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 40c | 124.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0a90backed Yes | 14c | 89.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ab…5514backed No | 60c | 81.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 41c | 56.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…68b8backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fenerbahce beat Athletic Bilbao?this page
- Will Athletic Bilbao beat Fenerbahce?Yes won
- Will the match between Fenerbahce and Athletic Bilbao end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.