Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Lyon beat Ludogorets?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6a3148f4ad07bf930c07b9d10c7c31b7f40ffbc1b36363cd859e747e443d7ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 78c | 8,000$6,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,240 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 23c | 5,514$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,264.5 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 20c | 1,573$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.45 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 21c | 669.97$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.34 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 22c | 443.52$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.26 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…1ca6backed Yes | 78c | 206.03$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 18c | 205$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.3 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 121 | 66.9%81 W · 40 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 80c | 99.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 69c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed Yes | 76c | 32.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x297d…7cc9backed Yes | 78c | 28.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0b…62b4backed Yes | 79c | 27.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5280…0068backed Yes | 79c | 25.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfc…b73abacked Yes | 78c | 23.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e07…235bbacked Yes | 78c | 23.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df5…f724backed Yes | 80c | 20.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…6a46backed Yes | 78c | 19.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…9712backed Yes | 79c | 18.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fc…a203backed Yes | 78c | 16.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedfe…4b2cbacked Yes | 71c | 15.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…6747backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1350…470cbacked Yes | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lyon beat Ludogorets?this page
- Will Ludogorets beat Lyon?No won
- Will the match between Lyon and Ludogorets end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.