Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump and Zelenskyy hug in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6f6119eafb6f91d4a880c08c8354c821ea12d422262e12f04508eefcfb80d6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 2c | 20,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +935.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…77a9backed Yes | 10c | 4,757$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…6986backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…aa59backed Yes | 1c | 3,216$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,089$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,089$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 956.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -95.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 14c | 722.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 700$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…04b1backed Yes | 7c | 679.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4e…3cc1backed Yes | 5c | 642.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2951…8f9fbacked Yes | 8c | 621.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +307.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…d9febacked Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 8c | 415.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 5c | 413.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 4c | 383.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 3c | 382.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…ae40backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 5c | 359.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…87e0backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc829…cad3backed Yes | 7c | 288.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…f938backed Yes | 6c | 170.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…857abacked Yes | 16c | 128.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.