MLB · resolved market
Rockies vs. Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe795d4cccea17ec98f1e14f73cf366fc4129465ad14229d1420189776ef9e5d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astrosof Rockies, Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Astros | 67c | 7,931$5,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,621.71 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Astros | 71c | 5,950$4,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.37 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Astros | 68c | 5,589$3,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rockies | 31c | 5,170$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.95 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockies | 34c | 2,836$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Rockies | 31c | 2,146$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.39 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Rockies | 31c | 1,835$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.55 | 217 | 47%102 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Rockies | 30c | 1,623$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.95 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Rockies | 41c | 1,181$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.95 | 543 | 45.5%247 W · 296 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Rockies | 32c | 759.37$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Astros | 69c | 576$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.61 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…01fabacked Rockies | 31c | 536.5$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.31 | 513 | 47%241 W · 272 L | +32.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rockies | 30c | 278.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.53 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rockies | 30c | 198$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Rockies | 22c | 194.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dde…8a88backed Rockies | 17c | 169.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Rockies | 31c | 149.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Astros | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Rockies | 37c | 131.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Rockies | 31c | 106$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…4e82backed Astros | 69c | 93.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 600 | 52.2%313 W · 287 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Rockies | 31c | 93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2719…28ddbacked Astros | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 253 | 64.4%163 W · 90 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Astros | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 687 | 69.6%478 W · 209 L | +60.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…c0edbacked Rockies | 32c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 337 | 50.4%170 W · 167 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Astros | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Rockies | 31c | 37.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fe…771cbacked Rockies | 45c | 30.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…5543backed Rockies | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Astros | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockies vs. Astrosthis page
- Spread: Astros (-1.5)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.