Europa Conference League · resolved market
PFK CSKA Sofia leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe79799522d2ce6eb80fb3498da625939ef6084eedd0b2c9ad80ea5f2d4e2ae81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf622…b1f0backed No | 10c | 2,100$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Yes | 52c | 1,537$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.93 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 48c | 998.61$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.34 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 48c | 270$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 48c | 268.73$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 45c | 268.09$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.63 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 57c | 250.91$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.23 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 48c | 93.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf45…ea2cbacked No | 44c | 58.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 51c | 54.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 51c | 44.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 43c | 39.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 46c | 34.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 41c | 33.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked No | 43c | 23.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.