Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7a8fb5ba55adaa047761d13c3e6afbc41aa5bc69467d29120ec4464a77a7c74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 34c | 369.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.57 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 311.36$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 19c | 248.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 127.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 70c | 110.11$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 103.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes | 68c | 99.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 35c | 98.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 62c | 86.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 42c | 79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 65.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 64.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 61.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 26c | 58.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86c…2a30backed No | 54c | 57.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -5.3wins | -0.48per pick | 67cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 43c | 47.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked Yes | 40c | 46.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 68c | 45.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…895ebacked Yes | 72c | 40.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 58c | 38.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 37c | 31.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 31.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…114dbacked Yes | 65c | 30.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 28.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 69c | 26.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbb…0a44backed Yes | 59c | 24.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 73c | 22.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 50c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 79c | 18.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…8b12backed Yes | 76c | 15.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 54 | 88.9%48 W · 6 L | +12.5wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +40%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.