Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8074e46a3bff192344ecd03cc0dd0c88fd312ec0629f58e0e689c002776ac78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LGD Gamingof LGD Gaming, PlayTime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3054…055bbacked PlayTime | 40c | 486$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed LGD Gaming | 49c | 329.97$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.28 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed LGD Gaming | 60c | 270$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked LGD Gaming | 61c | 246.47$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…828fbacked PlayTime | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed PlayTime | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2e…9d98backed PlayTime | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed PlayTime | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed PlayTime | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked LGD Gaming | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsLGD Gaming won
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Game Handicap: LGD (-2.5) vs PlayTime (+2.5)LGD Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.