South American Leagues · resolved market
CA River Plate vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8143e310c1e2027c39f7d3385ab8c9b68bef4061a77dfbae80563f6182bcb84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 1,015$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.86 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 52c | 945.07$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.29 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 45c | 839.41$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.62 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 767.02$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.77 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 50c | 258$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 18c | 198.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.8 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 18c | 174.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e93…80d6backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ae…1b3dbacked Under | 64c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 56c | 85.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 49c | 79.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Over | 53c | 21.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 72c | 17.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…1cb2backed Under | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA River Plate vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 3.5this page
- CA River Plate vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: CA Vélez Sarsfield O/U 2.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)CA Vélez Sarsfield won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5)CA Vélez Sarsfield won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-1.5)CA River Plate won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-2.5)CA River Plate won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.