Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe82be333a4d6697624da576386917e35f6e4c8118f19f32dae8ca7647984cfe0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,590 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 29c | 980.09$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.1 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…c87ebacked No | 35c | 714$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Yes | 69c | 549.09$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f9…be19backed Yes | 73c | 326$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…9ce8backed No | 42c | 320$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…b29cbacked No | 42c | 319$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…f812backed Yes | 58c | 318$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd390…8705backed Yes | 58c | 317$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…b741backed Yes | 58c | 313$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…b2c2backed Yes | 58c | 298$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ea…3ca9backed Yes | 73c | 294$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…44fabacked Yes | 58c | 293$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…1bbebacked Yes | 58c | 272$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae08…c9f2backed No | 42c | 258$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…314abacked Yes | 58c | 251$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…c25bbacked No | 42c | 227$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 25c | 226.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38b0…f22bbacked No | 42c | 222$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd028…5aecbacked No | 28c | 213$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…5e00backed No | 33c | 208.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b69…2f72backed No | 42c | 204$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c4…fc25backed Yes | 75c | 203$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabac…23b0backed Yes | 58c | 203$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf9…f10fbacked Yes | 58c | 201$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc793…4a57backed No | 42c | 196$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…157ebacked No | 35c | 194$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa9…faabbacked No | 42c | 190$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890e…4a05backed Yes | 75c | 188$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x062d…23d2backed Yes | 75c | 185$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…f606backed No | 42c | 185$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1376…b7c5backed No | 42c | 179$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b54…50d6backed Yes | 72c | 176$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c21…3aa8backed No | 28c | 176$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f5…e87dbacked No | 28c | 169$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31c…c338backed No | 42c | 166$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e8…cf6fbacked Yes | 72c | 162$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…ccccbacked Yes | 75c | 152$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed Yes | 62c | 144.49$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 848 | 46%390 W · 458 L | +51.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 72c | 138$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b00…6515backed No | 28c | 123$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e64…88f6backed Yes | 75c | 112$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…676ebacked No | 39c | 98.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…1347backed No | 32c | 78.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1594…1766backed Yes | 69c | 63.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…6ef9backed Yes | 73c | 20.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3902…43f8backed Yes | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 67c | 15.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 51 | 84.3%43 W · 8 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on March 19?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 19?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on March 19?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.