WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs Lynx
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe86a06a7b0998ebb5d554972543e9fd123a06b9a7bc35dc8de8e32725c897242
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lynxof Mercury, Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mercury | 14c | 5,557$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.06 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Mercury | 14c | 4,062$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.11 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Mercury | 12c | 2,853$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.6 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mercury | 13c | 2,534$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.36 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mercury | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mercury | 13c | 775.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mercury | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mercury | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Mercury | 12c | 618.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Mercury | 17c | 500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Lynx | 76c | 207.51$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +158.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Mercury | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Mercury | 15c | 99.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Mercury | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Lynx | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.