South American Leagues · resolved market
CS Cienciano vs. FBC Melgar: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe897816adef8399db207b8918f0a247d68273219bdb8467e753ea3a76d693b6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,168 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87d9…5a08backed Over | 9c | 1,428$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…2bc4backed Under | 80c | 567.21$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.44 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 45c | 423.12$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.4 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 50c | 382.76$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.38 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 367.92$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.36 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 329.85$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 46c | 223.81$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 41c | 202.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 77c | 192.83$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 55c | 178.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.33 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 46c | 150.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 50c | 99.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 55c | 74.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 18c | 61.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +121%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 69c | 46.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 31c | 46.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 43c | 34.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 45c | 26.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 71c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CS Cienciano vs. FBC Melgar: O/U 2.5this page
- CS Cienciano vs. FBC Melgar: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CS Cienciano vs. FBC Melgar: O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. FBC Melgar: O/U 3.5Under won
- CS Cienciano vs. FBC Melgar: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.