Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8ad4220ae98c63a194a7d99307d1035a2b798eccc81a320be1f0ef62ee9755c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 18c | 75,000$13,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,500 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 17c | 2,500$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.99 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 6c | 1,125$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 17c | 1,017$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.92 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 8c | 546.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked No | 4c | 378.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked No | 17c | 303.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 16c | 274.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde77…8cd3backed Yes | 79c | 185.63$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 17c | 162.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 17c | 160$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 17c | 125.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…028ebacked No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 12c | 97.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -7.8wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed No | 18c | 93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed No | 18c | 73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-18?this page
- Will FC Drita win on 2025-12-18?No won
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. FC Drita end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.