Tennis · resolved market
ITF W15 Campos do Jordao Women: Beatriz Guerra vs Lara Isabella Kralus
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe94300506afaaac32815066dd8f0bc35623d436c0c4ef12eb89691ad7888f470
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Beatriz Guerraof Beatriz Guerra, Lara Isabella Kralus
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Beatriz Guerra | 40c | 1,823$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.08 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Lara Isabella Kralus | 61c | 1,224$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 3,885 | 55%2,137 W · 1,748 L | +111.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lara Isabella Kralus | 67c | 442.41$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.26 | 2,492 | 51.3%1,279 W · 1,213 L | +15.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Beatriz Guerra | 33c | 387.01$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.3 | 7,129 | 39.7%2,832 W · 4,297 L | -14.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Lara Isabella Kralus | 61c | 318$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.98 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Lara Isabella Kralus | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 385 | 54.5%210 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Beatriz Guerra | 47c | 193.59$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 1,316 | 39%513 W · 803 L | -23.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Lara Isabella Kralus | 73c | 172.5$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 1,073 | 57.6%618 W · 455 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Beatriz Guerra | 15c | 118.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 292 | 57.2%167 W · 125 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…4324backed Beatriz Guerra | 31c | 111.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Lara Isabella Kralus | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 305 | 55.4%169 W · 136 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Lara Isabella Kralus | 16c | 82.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,085 | 49.9%541 W · 544 L | +47.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Lara Isabella Kralus | 59c | 81.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Beatriz Guerra | 34c | 75.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 4,041 | 45.7%1,848 W · 2,193 L | -28.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Beatriz Guerra | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 740 | 47.8%354 W · 386 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Lara Isabella Kralus | 72c | 69.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 486 | 66.5%323 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Beatriz Guerra | 28c | 65.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Lara Isabella Kralus | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1,428 | 55%785 W · 643 L | +22.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Lara Isabella Kralus | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 988 | 55.5%548 W · 440 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Lara Isabella Kralus | 69c | 36.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lara Isabella Kralus | 71c | 34.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 8,834 | 42.5%3,758 W · 5,076 L | -169.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Lara Isabella Kralus | 69c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 294 | 68.7%202 W · 92 L | +14.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Beatriz Guerra | 48c | 23.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1,857 | 41%762 W · 1,095 L | -32.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…e58cbacked Lara Isabella Kralus | 52c | 23.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Lara Isabella Kralus | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,043 | 54.3%566 W · 477 L | +38.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF W15 Campos do Jordao Women: Beatriz Guerra vs Lara Isabella Kralusthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Guerra vs KralusGuerra won
- Set Handicap: Guerra (-1.5) vs Kralus (+1.5)Guerra won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.