Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe95f76c02a1c949380ce91a1fd9571e5118fd39dc92b62dc09f2794caad2ab6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Estar Backsof Estar Backs, Gior Dota Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Estar Backs | 73c | 906.82$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.13 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…a3c4backed Gior Dota Team | 28c | 593.96$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.72 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Gior Dota Team | 29c | 330.78$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Gior Dota Team | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Gior Dota Team | 21c | 231.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…3c1abacked Gior Dota Team | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Estar Backs | 75c | 199.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Estar Backs | 75c | 192.19$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Gior Dota Team | 27c | 154.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…8981backed Gior Dota Team | 38c | 128.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…bce9backed Estar Backs | 77c | 123.31$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Estar Backs | 76c | 107.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Estar Backs | 71c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Gior Dota Team | 12c | 99.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Estar Backs | 67c | 83.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Gior Dota Team | 24c | 75.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Estar Backs | 69c | 72.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Estar Backs | 72c | 68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Estar Backs | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Gior Dota Team | 35c | 56.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Gior Dota Team | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Estar Backs | 71c | 26.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Estar Backs | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Estar Backs | 75c | 13.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South America Open Qualifier 2 PlayoffsEstar Backs won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 1 WinnerGior Dota Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.