Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South America Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4015baa5d7619d6bdfd334ad8711a8b2b060fe8a144ca4558f4f40c389057684
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Estar Backsof Estar Backs, Gior Dota Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Gior Dota Team | 19c | 1,099$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.08 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…3f84backed Estar Backs | 60c | 833$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.2 | 145 | 62.1%90 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Gior Dota Team | 23c | 616.28$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.92 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed Gior Dota Team | 40c | 575$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Gior Dota Team | 37c | 551.86$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Gior Dota Team | 6c | 510$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…a3c4backed Gior Dota Team | 39c | 462.19$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.8 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…0d8abacked Gior Dota Team | 38c | 389.53$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.01 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…8981backed Gior Dota Team | 17c | 291.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…3c1abacked Estar Backs | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Estar Backs | 60c | 167.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…8b45backed Estar Backs | 69c | 144.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…fbbbbacked Gior Dota Team | 21c | 139$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Gior Dota Team | 20c | 132$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Gior Dota Team | 14c | 127.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4def…06e6backed Gior Dota Team | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Gior Dota Team | 13c | 109.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Gior Dota Team | 20c | 91.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b77…ea63backed Estar Backs | 59c | 52.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…973fbacked Estar Backs | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…f184backed Estar Backs | 65c | 46.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…cfb9backed Estar Backs | 60c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Estar Backs | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Estar Backs | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ca…e92bbacked Estar Backs | 63c | 34.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Estar Backs | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 176 | 36.9%65 W · 111 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed Estar Backs | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Estar Backs | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Gior Dota Team | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked Estar Backs | 61c | 25.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 105 | 61%64 W · 41 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Gior Dota Team | 39c | 25.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…949ebacked Estar Backs | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a5d9backed Estar Backs | 79c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South America Open Qualifier 2 Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 1 WinnerGior Dota Team won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 2 WinnerEstar Backs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.