Commodities · resolved market
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9bdcb5636c9147c328c2399aba465d4fc109a3b6c9664c4e0e6f7fe76b1bb94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,700 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Up | 34c | 1,759$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.49 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Up | 34c | 1,218$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0131…4afbbacked Up | 80c | 728.37$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…89f1backed Down | 20c | 591.02$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.82 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -75%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c22…d8ccbacked Down | 67c | 579.27$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.44 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed Down | 78c | 555.2$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.38 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Down | 79c | 535.97$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Up | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Up | 34c | 487.02$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…dbedbacked Down | 68c | 450$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Down | 59c | 425.94$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…b066backed Down | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.26 | 24 | 95.8%23 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 72cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked Up | 4c | 348.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Down | 67c | 305.51$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…dbbabacked Down | 67c | 272.54$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed Down | 67c | 251.3$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +123%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d47…5a53backed Down | 65c | 232.71$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed Up | 39c | 224.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…021bbacked Down | 73c | 119$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…9d5cbacked Up | 35c | 117.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Up | 56c | 117.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…9917backed Up | 24c | 105.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…65c9backed Down | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked Up | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Down | 61c | 97.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Down | 58c | 77.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 35c | 76.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd405…d750backed Up | 34c | 74.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…25dcbacked Up | 33c | 68.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed Down | 63c | 64.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Up | 17c | 63.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc77…e31fbacked Down | 67c | 62.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Down | 67c | 58.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed Down | 75c | 54.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Down | 66c | 47.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa325…4201backed Up | 39c | 34.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…82a0backed Up | 51c | 34.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd852…d5a4backed Up | 47c | 32.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc341…6ddebacked Down | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Down | 68c | 24.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.