Tennis · resolved market
ITF Huamantla: Matthew Thomson vs Matt Kuhar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9c7f0367c9cdaea913ef12eb9d3e5bb625d74fedf64e2834f121eb086309cef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Matthew Thomsonof Matthew Thomson, Matt Kuhar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e83…b22fbacked Matt Kuhar | 50c | 4,748$2,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,373.93 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Matthew Thomson | 50c | 2,306$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.82 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Matt Kuhar | 49c | 1,930$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.57 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Matthew Thomson | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Matthew Thomson | 50c | 836.34$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.17 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +10.5wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Matthew Thomson | 50c | 750$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Matthew Thomson | 46c | 629.35$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.35 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Matthew Thomson | 50c | 390.04$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.02 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Matt Kuhar | 34c | 381.66$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.36 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Matthew Thomson | 42c | 242.26$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.51 | 736 | 48.1%354 W · 382 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Matthew Thomson | 37c | 222.77$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.77 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Matthew Thomson | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 282 | 55%155 W · 127 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Matthew Thomson | 59c | 117.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Matt Kuhar | 59c | 105.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 502 | 68.3%343 W · 159 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Matt Kuhar | 45c | 93.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Matt Kuhar | 36c | 76.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Matt Kuhar | 21c | 75.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 431 | 44.8%193 W · 238 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Matthew Thomson | 63c | 73.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Matthew Thomson | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Matthew Thomson | 42c | 69.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Matt Kuhar | 41c | 55.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1,459 | 50.1%731 W · 728 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Matt Kuhar | 76c | 55.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Matthew Thomson | 59c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Matthew Thomson | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Matt Kuhar | 34c | 48.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc02…ce2abacked Matthew Thomson | 77c | 44.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 215 | 72.6%156 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…2bedbacked Matthew Thomson | 50c | 44.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…e0b2backed Matthew Thomson | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd928…705fbacked Matt Kuhar | 58c | 33.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Matthew Thomson | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Matthew Thomson | 50c | 29.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Matt Kuhar | 51c | 27.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Matthew Thomson | 52c | 27.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Matthew Thomson | 46c | 26.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Matthew Thomson | 49c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Matthew Thomson | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.