Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Nardi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea07fdca46edd9555793883996fa8fa79102f7651a89ff65238a9f756a3f7074
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nardiof Ofner, Nardi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Ofner | 40c | 1,128$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.93 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Nardi | 56c | 1,105$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.26 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nardi | 60c | 988.25$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.78 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Ofner | 37c | 986.99$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.06 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ofner | 43c | 609.39$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.87 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Ofner | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Nardi | 71c | 388.77$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.46 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ofner | 56c | 378$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.78 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Nardi | 50c | 353.19$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.97 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nardi | 45c | 310$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.4 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Nardi | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Nardi | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nardi | 49c | 82.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Nardi | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6145…e49cbacked Nardi | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Ofner | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Nardi | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Ofner | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.