Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Stels - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea43d4f4a1010c41e1a4c91a6819c94be07b0bb278def9450545e2b3d4478ffe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Inner Circle, Team Stels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Stels | 22c | 894.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.94 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Team Stels | 22c | 668$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.1 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Stels | 13c | 606.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Stels | 3c | 530.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Inner Circle | 78c | 513.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.92 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Stels | 23c | 491.6$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.61 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Inner Circle | 78c | 439$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.54 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Team Stels | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 256 | 39.5%101 W · 155 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team Stels | 20c | 264.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Inner Circle | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Stels | 18c | 112.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Inner Circle | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Inner Circle | 78c | 84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Inner Circle | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Stels - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Stels (BO3) - European Pro League Group AInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Stels - Game 1 WinnerInner Circle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.