Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea4e75a702278bd5a0c233fc75587ac894b4f3f8f209cac53efe15496e2e3c65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Etcheverryof Carabelli, Etcheverry
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Carabelli | 0c | 11,099$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Etcheverry | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Carabelli | 27c | 340.96$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.06 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Etcheverry | 68c | 318.75$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Carabelli | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Etcheverry | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Carabelli | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Carabelli | 12c | 238$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Carabelli | 29c | 170$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Etcheverry | 72c | 139.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Etcheverry | 80c | 74.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Carabelli | 28c | 70.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Carabelli | 29c | 70.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Etcheverry | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Carabelli | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Etcheverry | 70c | 61.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Carabelli | 28c | 45.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Etcheverry | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Etcheverry | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.