Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jordan Thompson vs August Holmgren
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea94a0bd049602de01460f07e7b29c7d29cc4c1ee7bac7d234e1b5d8a2dd8b87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thompsonof Thompson, Holmgren
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Holmgren | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thompson | 76c | 827.46$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.92 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Thompson | 69c | 745.09$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.16 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Holmgren | 31c | 691$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.26 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Holmgren | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Thompson | 65c | 499.98$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.99 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Thompson | 53c | 383$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.7 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Holmgren | 21c | 326.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Holmgren | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Thompson | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Holmgren | 50c | 292.09$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.67 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Holmgren | 35c | 207.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Holmgren | 40c | 195$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Thompson | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e18…3082backed Thompson | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Thompson | 61c | 147$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Thompson | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Thompson | 67c | 142$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Holmgren | 48c | 128.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Holmgren | 36c | 101.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Holmgren | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thompson | 68c | 78.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Holmgren | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Holmgren | 33c | 56.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Holmgren | 31c | 43.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Holmgren | 39c | 35.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Thompson | 46c | 27.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Holmgren | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.