South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb39cadb5e4d9f258ed4f820b6a6f85d0667722e613a6fa60ac58155291727a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CA Mineiroof CA Mineiro, Mirassol FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mirassol FC | 77c | 799.8$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.26 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed CA Mineiro | 22c | 717.94$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.61 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Mirassol FC | 70c | 380.08$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.44 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed CA Mineiro | 30c | 189.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.72 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked CA Mineiro | 24c | 180$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked CA Mineiro | 25c | 180$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 157 | 68.2%107 W · 50 L | +21.8wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked CA Mineiro | 29c | 127.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed CA Mineiro | 25c | 120.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Mirassol FC | 75c | 105.86$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Mirassol FC | 79c | 53.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…f151backed CA Mineiro | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed CA Mineiro | 33c | 32.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Mirassol FC | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Mirassol FC | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed CA Mineiro | 68c | 16.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Mirassol FC | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)this page
- CA Mineiro vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Mineiro vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)Mirassol FC won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)CA Mineiro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.