South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Mineiro vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba508596fc98df5beb031b33d7f8d63ff5a0154ebcf41bbd39e1662d85169dea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 45c | 8,326$3,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,609.01 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 4,350$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450.15 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 3,859$2,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,263.92 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 37c | 2,704$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.07 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 34c | 1,271$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.03 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 1,105$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.19 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 72c | 791.58$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.96 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 39c | 735.78$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.7 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 54c | 700$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.05 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4691…2a8abacked Over | 62c | 445.24$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 73c | 411.49$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +8.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 59c | 395.75$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.53 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 308.86$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.55 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 67c | 303.63$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.15 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 19c | 269.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5d90backed Under | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 8c | 179.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Under | 19c | 167.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…3f3fbacked Over | 19c | 166.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cb…3e3fbacked Over | 34c | 132.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc582…853cbacked Under | 17c | 119.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Under | 60c | 108.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 22c | 102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1aa…9359backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 25c | 96.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 33c | 86.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 70c | 83.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 49c | 81.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 60c | 70.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…f1aabacked Under | 70c | 64.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 67c | 54.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 60c | 53.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…a1f2backed Under | 65c | 42.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 35c | 39.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 67c | 29.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…5782backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…7484backed Over | 74c | 21.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…0ad3backed Under | 61c | 20.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 67c | 19.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…f14dbacked Under | 64c | 18.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…4d7ebacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Mineiro vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5this page
- CA Mineiro vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Mineiro vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)CA Mineiro won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)Mirassol FC won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)CA Mineiro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.