NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Flames
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb409232b24042153d3312a3ed93b01d898869b48ca369294c7bc7b9ab4d6c2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Flames | 10c | 2,818$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.68 | 323 | 31.3%101 W · 222 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 1,200$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.95 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf482…d3c3backed Flames | 21c | 1,011$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.85 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Flames | 43c | 1,008$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.57 | 322 | 51.9%167 W · 155 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs | 51c | 946.09$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.91 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Flames | 42c | 879.08$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.89 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f79…1db4backed Flames | 65c | 827.25$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.71 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 598.08$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.19 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 506.38$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.87 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Flames | 45c | 505$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.44 | 724 | 44.6%323 W · 401 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 323.63$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.43 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 293.64$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 222.74$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.78 | 493 | 51.3%253 W · 240 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…f3fdbacked Flames | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 380 | 40.5%154 W · 226 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd430…1f89backed Flames | 43c | 151.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad5…01a8backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 144.45$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bc…bfccbacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 143.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Maple Leafs | 39c | 143.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 205 | 40.5%83 W · 122 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Flames | 43c | 128.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x031f…e9aebacked Flames | 45c | 120.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…f78dbacked Flames | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Flames | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…d726backed Flames | 43c | 111.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c9…64f5backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 109.93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc93…4249backed Flames | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Flames | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 500 | 49.4%247 W · 253 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…0536backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 95.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…036bbacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 93.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1154…33a8backed Flames | 45c | 90.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 459 | 54.2%249 W · 210 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…21a7backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 82.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 731 | 57.5%420 W · 311 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Flames | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 191 | 50.8%97 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 76.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Flames | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 285 | 42.1%120 W · 165 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Flames | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…2c06backed Flames | 45c | 55.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Maple Leafs | 35c | 49.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52da…938abacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 39.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd580…0789backed Flames | 41c | 39.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…9d59backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 38.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…8668backed Flames | 43c | 38.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…4b61backed Flames | 43c | 37.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…f8cfbacked Flames | 41c | 37.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012e…ea3dbacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 37.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc485…e765backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 37.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…1d66backed Flames | 42c | 36.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2c…43aabacked Flames | 41c | 36.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…0bf4backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 36.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…ea8ebacked Flames | 41c | 36.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8326…1ad3backed Flames | 44c | 36.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa432…0ed9backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 36.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…f100backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 36.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4e…1ceebacked Flames | 41c | 34.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…1dc8backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 34.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Flames | 38c | 33.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e16…84d7backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 33.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…b8ccbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 33.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bc01backed Flames | 42c | 33.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…deaabacked Flames | 41c | 33.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a37…4dbfbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 31.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5477…2274backed Flames | 42c | 31.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde1…a1d5backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 31.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ec11backed Flames | 41c | 30.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…4831backed Flames | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Flames | 42c | 28.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,079 | 54.3%586 W · 493 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b95…5047backed Flames | 42c | 27.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…4edebacked Flames | 41c | 26.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fda…f756backed Flames | 41c | 25.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef9…d0c5backed Flames | 42c | 25.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…f3fbbacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec5abacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 24.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…f406backed Flames | 43c | 24.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x658d…129cbacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 23.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7b…2dbabacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 23.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624f…5b7abacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 21.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…1bb4backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 21.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…ec9abacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 20.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf0…c941backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.