Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Missouri State vs. Illinois State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb6f3272ca72df3c72f4e38916b3e968402e9fa25565b672eb96e28d984708ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois Stateof Missouri State, Illinois State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Missouri State | 18c | 124.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec6…6ce8backed Missouri State | 24c | 116$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Illinois State | 55c | 99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Missouri State | 30c | 70.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf70…839abacked Illinois State | 76c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…bddabacked Missouri State | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…908cbacked Illinois State | 76c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…592abacked Missouri State | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9509…9a58backed Missouri State | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Missouri State | 22c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b8…c783backed Illinois State | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Illinois State | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…d41dbacked Illinois State | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Illinois State | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5735…8efdbacked Illinois State | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d2…cdcfbacked Illinois State | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…cd91backed Illinois State | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe580…2aafbacked Illinois State | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…288bbacked Illinois State | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9520…da18backed Illinois State | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…5fbebacked Illinois State | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.