Tennis · resolved market
Argentina Open, Qualification: Andrea Pellegrino vs Juan Manuel La Serna
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb8f2d22359a304d187447b64f75c30616843a08a1c69a11a2bc1fba6d0a760b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pellegrinoof Pellegrino, Serna
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Pellegrino | 65c | 1,262$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.7 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2020…7e22backed Serna | 36c | 843.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Serna | 35c | 837.41$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.09 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Serna | 10c | 442$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 275 | 43.3%119 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Pellegrino | 69c | 144.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Serna | 33c | 144$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed Serna | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Serna | 32c | 79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Serna | 23c | 72.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pellegrino | 75c | 61.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Serna | 22c | 56.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Pellegrino | 68c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Serna | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Pellegrino | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Pellegrino | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Pellegrino | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Pellegrino | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Pellegrino | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Pellegrino | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b1…d9b2backed Pellegrino | 69c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Pellegrino | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Argentina Open, Qualification: Andrea Pellegrino vs Juan Manuel La Sernathis page
- Pellegrino vs. Serna: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Pellegrino vs. Serna: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Pellegrino vs SernaPellegrino won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.