Tennis · resolved market
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Dalma Galfi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec57691821e50fb41d2f88228930ff703984f0236719c329addb1cc02c9b0e2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cirsteaof Cirstea, Galfi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Galfi | 43c | 3,417$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.35 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Cirstea | 42c | 2,463$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.93 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Cirstea | 61c | 2,449$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.08 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Galfi | 48c | 2,373$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.59 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Galfi | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Galfi | 50c | 1,224$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.75 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Galfi | 54c | 900$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Cirstea | 52c | 899$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.49 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Galfi | 21c | 672.65$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.09 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Cirstea | 48c | 600$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.5 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Galfi | 50c | 557.13$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.47 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…3a35backed Galfi | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b53…b06cbacked Cirstea | 71c | 302.82$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5907…b434backed Galfi | 59c | 300$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Galfi | 61c | 275.35$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.64 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62c7…d64fbacked Cirstea | 46c | 232$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Galfi | 27c | 208.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Cirstea | 51c | 201$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Galfi | 32c | 199.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Cirstea | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Cirstea | 48c | 168$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 243 | 40.3%98 W · 145 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Cirstea | 34c | 152.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.73 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ea…d109backed Cirstea | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…4db8backed Cirstea | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Cirstea | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 161 | 46.6%75 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Cirstea | 46c | 122.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…f847backed Galfi | 22c | 100.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Cirstea | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Cirstea | 45c | 99.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…ab82backed Cirstea | 42c | 76.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Cirstea | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Cirstea | 47c | 69.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cirstea | 66c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Galfi | 34c | 56.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31bb…0331backed Cirstea | 60c | 49.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Galfi | 29c | 49.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Cirstea | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Cirstea | 46c | 30.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…80f7backed Galfi | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…551dbacked Cirstea | 51c | 25.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.