Tennis · resolved market
Qatar Total Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Karolina Muchova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec746d8e6ac8a7030e791da18ba162e8face6e97416e7b260e30956bf015252d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muchovaof Pliskova, Muchova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Pliskova | 4c | 36,638$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.47 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Pliskova | 17c | 23,529$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pliskova | 7c | 11,766$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.88 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…0b58backed Pliskova | 1c | 11,633$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Pliskova | 19c | 11,195$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.41 | 450 | 36%162 W · 288 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pliskova | 6c | 4,090$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.44 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…dd00backed Pliskova | 19c | 2,632$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Muchova | 79c | 2,273$1,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.32 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Pliskova | 17c | 2,222$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.74 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfb…0628backed Pliskova | 23c | 1,740$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 302 | 41.7%126 W · 176 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241a…a9c8backed Pliskova | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Pliskova | 11c | 1,250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Pliskova | 5c | 1,208$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Pliskova | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 134 | 35.1%47 W · 87 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Pliskova | 17c | 1,100$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 485 | 52.8%256 W · 229 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Pliskova | 19c | 747.95$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…02c6backed Pliskova | 5c | 721.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 80 | 7.5%6 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Pliskova | 6c | 713.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Pliskova | 18c | 673$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pliskova | 6c | 606.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Pliskova | 7c | 342.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Pliskova | 18c | 328$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Pliskova | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Pliskova | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Pliskova | 16c | 233$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Pliskova | 17c | 232$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 313 | 32.3%101 W · 212 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Pliskova | 17c | 221.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 153 | 43.8%67 W · 86 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Pliskova | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Pliskova | 17c | 176.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8213…8c05backed Pliskova | 18c | 170.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Pliskova | 12c | 161.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 248 | 26.2%65 W · 183 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…dfdbbacked Pliskova | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Pliskova | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Pliskova | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Pliskova | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Pliskova | 16c | 104$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…a368backed Pliskova | 16c | 100.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…9cf6backed Pliskova | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…ffc4backed Pliskova | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Pliskova | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…1a65backed Pliskova | 17c | 61.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372d…a119backed Pliskova | 22c | 55.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f81cbacked Pliskova | 20c | 50.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…8e7cbacked Pliskova | 20c | 50.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Muchova | 80c | 40.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…b6c9backed Muchova | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 118 | 65.3%77 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.