Middle East · resolved market
Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec8aa3c5b5fc8e733184a2e2ad65177c7e22e9b592960d2babbaeed62eca6328
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa93d…b5ecbacked Yes | 1c | 20,595$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,226$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 3c | 1,687$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2335…4ebdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,109$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…3db5backed Yes | 11c | 1,075$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014d…176fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…3cc7backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ca…b887backed Yes | 4c | 973$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc578…fab0backed Yes | 5c | 780.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 765.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…6ee0backed Yes | 8c | 713.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf795…2f51backed Yes | 15c | 646.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…803ebacked Yes | 11c | 521.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…a1aebacked Yes | 9c | 504$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0989…4d83backed Yes | 24c | 418.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 2c | 410.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed Yes | 11c | 399.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…51ecbacked Yes | 5c | 373.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef0…ee8fbacked Yes | 6c | 355.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 9c | 319.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4882…9bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 310.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ce…dfaabacked Yes | 7c | 277.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2902…33cdbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc592…57b1backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1f…9cdebacked Yes | 12c | 225.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 9c | 225$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0557…f3a5backed Yes | 5c | 222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 11c | 210$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…1ccebacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb38…33ebbacked Yes | 9c | 182.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed Yes | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 73c | 139.41$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c31…ea4bbacked Yes | 10c | 124.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 63c | 119.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f62…5e32backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5982…fa1ebacked No | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f4…6784backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…63d3backed Yes | 15c | 75.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.