Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee23e00eabb0339c3744a3c18e014cc27256ae9e116bab7321c143bf87fff027
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf757…db38backed No | 8c | 2,057$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.63 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb991…aa11backed No | 1c | 1,173$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…7cbebacked No | 10c | 977.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed No | 4c | 656.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 71c | 310.63$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ba…4da2backed Yes | 72c | 229.34$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 203.05$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 77c | 154.16$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…bf1abacked Yes | 34c | 133.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.92 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 118.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 99.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 73c | 91.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 66c | 87.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 72c | 78.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 27c | 78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 66c | 72.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 68c | 66.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ff…f93abacked No | 72c | 65.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 33c | 64.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 63.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 56.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…4532backed Yes | 71c | 53.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 51.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…8292backed Yes | 70c | 49.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff9…bf35backed No | 73c | 49.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…e793backed Yes | 25c | 49.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 48.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 75c | 41.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 76c | 40.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d7…7c87backed Yes | 76c | 38.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 69cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 29c | 36.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 73c | 34.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…e905backed No | 70c | 28.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d9…2566backed Yes | 70c | 27.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 73c | 26.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 73c | 25.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f5…c4c9backed Yes | 79c | 23.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 66c | 20.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 58c | 20.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 71c | 19.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 66c | 19.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa399…bb47backed No | 74c | 18.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.