Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Illinois State Redbirds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee648a401e183809123f1bf572e203523f18c65e18732e993a6a9c6dbe840a49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois State Redbirdsof Northern Iowa Panthers, Illinois State Redbirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 25c | 2,060$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.52 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 76c | 2,053$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.8 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 72c | 1,258$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.08 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Northern Iowa Panthers | 27c | 1,042$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.66 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 5c | 1,015$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Northern Iowa Panthers | 25c | 747$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.75 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Illinois State Redbirds | 76c | 676.38$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.79 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Illinois State Redbirds | 77c | 583.71$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.49 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Northern Iowa Panthers | 24c | 529.95$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.14 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 25c | 501$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Illinois State Redbirds | 72c | 415.05$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Illinois State Redbirds | 76c | 268$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Northern Iowa Panthers | 24c | 253.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 12c | 179.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 28c | 177.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Illinois State Redbirds | 74c | 173$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 7c | 169$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Northern Iowa Panthers | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 25c | 107.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c34…c8b8backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 28c | 107$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 143 | 39.9%57 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Northern Iowa Panthers | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 225 | 52.9%119 W · 106 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Northern Iowa Panthers | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 75c | 66.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 181 | 67.4%122 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Illinois State Redbirds | 76c | 62.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 27c | 49.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 24c | 45.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…41b7backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 72c | 39.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…648ebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 75c | 29.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 73c | 27.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Illinois State Redbirds | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Illinois State Redbirdsthis page
- Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 131.5Under won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-7.5)Northern Iowa Panthers won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-8.5)Northern Iowa Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.