Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef564f3308e3c03f7668ee47b53bb014f4ca4bb86d9b7a349efb7dd8f864e4ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 7c | 2,061$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.98 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 15c | 349.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 242.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 11c | 203.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 28c | 192.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 179.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 15c | 143.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 122.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 27c | 116.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…f35dbacked Yes | 29c | 102.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 94.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 16c | 92.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 90.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 15c | 88.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 26c | 87.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 83.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes | 15c | 71.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…b944backed Yes | 16c | 66.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 64.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 31c | 63.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd27…ca0abacked No | 77c | 62.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 60.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 54.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 53.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 28.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…fcd6backed No | 73c | 26.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 74c | 21.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…2f28backed No | 78c | 19.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 16.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 72c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.