Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xede7c1fa60754ea8ffb60c40c2afbbb6ce7cbe1749fa7eccd222cce70e7de20c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 316.93$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked Yes | 79c | 251.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 196.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.15 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 18c | 160.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 12c | 159.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 61c | 157.15$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 153.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed No | 7c | 148.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 45c | 143.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…f35dbacked Yes | 40c | 115.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 56c | 97.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 96.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…6a11backed Yes | 54c | 89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 42c | 88.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 66c | 88.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 55c | 86.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 22c | 68.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…919abacked Yes | 40c | 68.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 70c | 67.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 66.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 64.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 54c | 61.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 50c | 58.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 47c | 56.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 60c | 56.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 53.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 45c | 52.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 54c | 51.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 37c | 50.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 48.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 49c | 48.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 46c | 40.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7368…6e6dbacked No | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…da13backed Yes | 54c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 34c | 35.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 42c | 34.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 40c | 34.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 57c | 34.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 59c | 32.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82da…ac29backed Yes | 71c | 30.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…2fffbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes | 67c | 29.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 47c | 29.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 43c | 29.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 42c | 25.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 57c | 25.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 57c | 25.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…8384backed Yes | 52c | 23.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 56c | 23.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…a744backed No | 60c | 22.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 65c | 21.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2a…3ba6backed No | 71c | 19.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 54c | 19.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 77c | 17.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 17.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…3a02backed Yes | 79c | 16.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.