NHL · resolved market
Canucks vs. Stars: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef9dac8b41b56724c8b307b8d4e6af1e69f4ffb2c0a20dfc1acd22936365271d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Over | 56c | 7,126$4,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,101.56 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 55c | 6,001$3,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,670.98 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Under | 43c | 3,224$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.17 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 2,952$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.55 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 43c | 2,761$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.14 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 44c | 1,400$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa78…698bbacked Over | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfd…a801backed Under | 45c | 1,100$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 43c | 659.69$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.67 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 44c | 560.67$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.01 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Under | 45c | 450$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 42c | 399.4$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.75 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…0a25backed Under | 44c | 312.17$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.35 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c623backed Over | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf98e…25c0backed Over | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 25.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canucks vs. Stars: O/U 5.5this page
- Canucks vs. StarsCanucks won
- Canucks vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Canucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.