Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefd937e563c53523ce259c4c2f0e71d52332be5018432cd0a016aeadfeaaf42e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hanfmannof Cerundolo, Hanfmann
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hanfmann | 47c | 2,194$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.18 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Cerundolo | 56c | 1,432$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Hanfmann | 44c | 488.92$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.41 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Cerundolo | 58c | 226.03$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 645 | 37.2%240 W · 405 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Cerundolo | 50c | 203.18$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Cerundolo | 55c | 182.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 184 | 54.3%100 W · 84 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked Cerundolo | 52c | 143.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Hanfmann | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 250 | 51.2%128 W · 122 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Cerundolo | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0436…f431backed Cerundolo | 55c | 90.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Hanfmann | 51c | 58.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Hanfmann | 45c | 56.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0d03backed Cerundolo | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 166 | 57.8%96 W · 70 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Hanfmann | 44c | 50.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Hanfmann | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Cerundolo | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5)this page
- Chile Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Yannick HanfmannYannick Hanfmann won
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs HanfmannHanfmann won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.