Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf070a5f264742e08b9a368425eca6563036f519bba122f3dc81ff97383200919
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GamerLegionof MOUZ, GamerLegion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 40c | 4,310$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.89 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked MOUZ | 55c | 3,171$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736.2 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed GamerLegion | 32c | 3,095$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095.45 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed GamerLegion | 42c | 2,374$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.72 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed GamerLegion | 58c | 2,353$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.26 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed GamerLegion | 28c | 2,111$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.45 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked MOUZ | 72c | 1,881$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.98 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked MOUZ | 2c | 1,822$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78f…3a77backed MOUZ | 70c | 1,249$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.47 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed GamerLegion | 63c | 1,001$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.7 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed MOUZ | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed GamerLegion | 67c | 750$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed GamerLegion | 54c | 734.08$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.08 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked MOUZ | 46c | 574.63$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.82 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked GamerLegion | 50c | 507$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.25 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed GamerLegion | 79c | 419.71$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked MOUZ | 37c | 337.16$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.9 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked MOUZ | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…c2eabacked MOUZ | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed MOUZ | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ | 68c | 221$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.28 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked MOUZ | 10c | 174$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed GamerLegion | 39c | 160$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked MOUZ | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 162 | 32.7%53 W · 109 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed MOUZ | 66c | 114.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked MOUZ | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d54…8d9abacked MOUZ | 73c | 69.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked GamerLegion | 55c | 63.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed MOUZ | 46c | 54.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed MOUZ | 49c | 51.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked MOUZ | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…99ebbacked MOUZ | 67c | 37.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 146 | 68.5%100 W · 46 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked GamerLegion | 65c | 16.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed GamerLegion | 65c | 16.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs GamerLegion (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs GamerLegion - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.