Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf07d3df73d8bfa68b3e57b2e18739fed9e74074cf2620a91b4963e3595fdea9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mertensof Mertens, Eala
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Mertens | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,166.65 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Eala | 52c | 1,747$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.38 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Eala | 52c | 1,612$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.05 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Eala | 61c | 524.64$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.03 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Mertens | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 268 | 47.8%128 W · 140 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Mertens | 35c | 384.62$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…fa8ebacked Eala | 52c | 378$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.56 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Mertens | 61c | 367.06$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.93 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Eala | 52c | 360.58$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a17…910dbacked Eala | 42c | 334.78$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb575…d35bbacked Eala | 39c | 244.95$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 302 | 35.1%106 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Eala | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Mertens | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…650dbacked Eala | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 157 | 62.4%98 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…788bbacked Mertens | 36c | 145$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Mertens | 36c | 145$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Eala | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Eala | 33c | 91.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 603 | 42%253 W · 350 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mertens | 67c | 60.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Mertens | 38c | 42.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Mertens | 31c | 34.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Eala | 62c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Eala | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5)this page
- Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise MertensElise Mertens won
- Set 1 Winner: Eala vs MertensMertens won
- Set Handicap: Eala (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5)Mertens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.