Serie A · resolved market
Will Roma beat Fiorentina?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1332449112b10099e00584483e2628813a75c2f2fb2a28dddc81a95bc7ce19e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 42c | 5,987$2,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,529.26 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 44c | 5,902$2,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,596.86 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 56c | 3,621$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.46 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 56c | 1,597$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 43c | 833.7$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 61c | 527.35$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.67 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 39c | 511.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.67 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Yes | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 58c | 313.64$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.94 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 41c | 285.94$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.3 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Yes | 61c | 281.98$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 56c | 277.2$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.97 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ee…956ebacked No | 41c | 133.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Yes | 61c | 126.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6d…2a58backed No | 41c | 123.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Yes | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…274dbacked Yes | 61c | 95.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57f…ad4fbacked Yes | 61c | 86.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423b…0972backed Yes | 61c | 83.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 39c | 76.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 39c | 53.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…5ae1backed No | 41c | 50.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308c…d0a3backed No | 41c | 42.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d0…04a0backed No | 41c | 41.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…1792backed Yes | 61c | 36.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Yes | 57c | 35.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16b…2c39backed No | 41c | 35.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8747…19fdbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf328…763abacked No | 41c | 33.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x317c…f326backed Yes | 61c | 33.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a92…d50dbacked Yes | 61c | 33.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked No | 43c | 31.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccd…5bc9backed Yes | 61c | 30.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9500…85eabacked Yes | 61c | 28.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbe…46e1backed No | 41c | 28.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f9…91d7backed Yes | 61c | 26.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18bd…867abacked No | 41c | 26.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9167…04d4backed No | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb2…8e12backed Yes | 61c | 26.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…b1fdbacked Yes | 61c | 24.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Roma beat Fiorentina? this page
- Will Fiorentina beat Roma? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.