Us Politics · resolved market
Will there be less than 75k border encounters in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf151ff58bc099b15a71c2217f9bd12885383441d5e2b13a78997613ec6fb4dd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 77c | 578.89$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.89 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 270$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe17…dd5cbacked Yes | 62c | 252$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 30c | 193.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 130.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4503…7aaabacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ce…13b2backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…3f3dbacked Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…a4aabacked Yes | 67c | 28.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e74…93bcbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be less than 75k border encounters in February?this page
- Will there be between 105k and 120k border encounters in February?No won
- Will there be between 75k and 90k border encounters in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.