Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf18ff8f25bc6dbc996d377bd2a0dedabab17b2a274f831c81856f2a38ed5dbf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 67c | 460.26$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.81 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 314.63$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 65c | 307.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.93 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 29c | 276.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 8c | 256.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 68c | 154.28$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 139.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 130.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 50c | 102.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 28c | 84.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 33c | 84.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 45c | 80.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 74.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 75c | 73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 34c | 64.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 35c | 61.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 66c | 54.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 45c | 51.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 37c | 48.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 30c | 46.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 38c | 39.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 69c | 38.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 38.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 63c | 36.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 70c | 32.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 59c | 30.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 29.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 36c | 27.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 66c | 27.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 50c | 26.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a134backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 67c | 20.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 61c | 19.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f60…39c4backed No | 80c | 18.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 79cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 76c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.