Tennis · resolved market
ITF Poprad: Sebastian Sec vs Michal Novansky
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1b74fd2b6bd4db15e94984b18e5649ea2905da3b14823fd879aef74f9adbd29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sebastian Secof Sebastian Sec, Michal Novansky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Michal Novansky | 27c | 290.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sebastian Sec | 62c | 157.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Sebastian Sec | 72c | 103.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 181 | 47.5%86 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac8…f0a3backed Michal Novansky | 30c | 88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Michal Novansky | 27c | 73.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Sebastian Sec | 70c | 71.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Sebastian Sec | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Michal Novansky | 33c | 49.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Sebastian Sec | 72c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Sebastian Sec | 70c | 36.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Michal Novansky | 58c | 35.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Michal Novansky | 60c | 20.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Michal Novansky | 58c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Michal Novansky | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Sebastian Sec | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.