CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs STATE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1c2df48f8968c5de85d358386daceaba206d5771fd68461d3706334306ab38c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- STATEof Fortress, STATE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec7b…917ebacked Fortress | 18c | 999.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.31 | 277 | 40.8%113 W · 164 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…42dcbacked Fortress | 13c | 379.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Fortress | 12c | 349$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 495 | 36.4%180 W · 315 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b88…16e6backed Fortress | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 158 | 23.4%37 W · 121 L | -18.0wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x824a…3952backed Fortress | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 39.7%56 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…c4e9backed Fortress | 10c | 170.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee7…8868backed Fortress | 10c | 169.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0c…5ad0backed Fortress | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…8892backed Fortress | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…2faebacked Fortress | 17c | 134.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Fortress | 14c | 132.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Fortress | 10c | 110.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…3234backed Fortress | 10c | 102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 313 | 45%141 W · 172 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d4…2f1ebacked Fortress | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 291 | 56.7%165 W · 126 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…a8a7backed Fortress | 16c | 98.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Fortress | 15c | 94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffae…55c0backed Fortress | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 116 | 32.8%38 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9702…ca89backed Fortress | 14c | 80.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Fortress vs STATE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group Athis page
- Counter-Strike: Fortress vs STATE - Map 1 WinnerSTATE won
- Counter-Strike: Fortress vs STATE - Map 2 WinnerSTATE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.