CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs STATE - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7f5ad2dff14d14a5a957885baa2139d6f80cbec9aea9b590ded77ae1178c232
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- STATEof Fortress, STATE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…0355backed Fortress | 23c | 1,698$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.94 | 233 | 56.2%131 W · 102 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked STATE | 77c | 488.51$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…0717backed Fortress | 27c | 454.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 295 | 43.1%127 W · 168 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Fortress | 24c | 418.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Fortress | 22c | 374.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 752 | 45.3%341 W · 411 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Fortress | 26c | 370.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed Fortress | 20c | 280$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 351 | 53.8%189 W · 162 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…2c72backed Fortress | 28c | 250.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked STATE | 77c | 210.81$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Fortress | 23c | 200.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed STATE | 76c | 196.09$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3870…c3dbbacked STATE | 74c | 173.12$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…ed78backed STATE | 68c | 146.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed STATE | 79c | 138.03$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…81f2backed STATE | 66c | 132.42$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked STATE | 79c | 125.66$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed STATE | 73c | 110.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 890 | 46.1%410 W · 480 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa8…efa7backed STATE | 75c | 106$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Fortress | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked STATE | 76c | 93.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3540…3c49backed STATE | 64c | 77.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed STATE | 79c | 68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 514 | 46.9%241 W · 273 L | -22.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Fortress | 25c | 64.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 610 | 54.9%335 W · 275 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Fortress | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed STATE | 78c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked STATE | 77c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf8…5d40backed STATE | 77c | 45.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked STATE | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…9abcbacked STATE | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 102 | 54.9%56 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed STATE | 76c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked STATE | 74c | 25.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked STATE | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…7262backed STATE | 78c | 15.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Fortress vs STATE - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Fortress vs STATE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group ASTATE won
- Counter-Strike: Fortress vs STATE - Map 2 WinnerSTATE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.